So much hype going on these days in the world of web standards and interactive media. Apple is in the middle of a full-on Flash-bashing PR blitz, saying Flash is a CPU hog and causes crashes. Open standards advocates continually troll blogs posting that HTML5 can "do anything that Flash can". Adobe seems fairly quiet in what I can assume is preparation for the Creative Suite 5 and FlashPlayer 10.1 salvo. I like that calmness from a personal standpoint, but I fear that famous reality distortion field.

Here are a few points that I see as an animator and, more specifically, as an Adobe shareholder:

Adobe Owns Design Tools

Creating animation, and more importantly, interactive animation, is a difficult thing. One has to create art assets and write code and then assemble them into a singular design. You need a strong authoring environment to give you the flexibility and freedom to be creative. Adobe is the gold standard in authoring environments for all things visual, proven most recently by the celebration of 20 years of Photoshop. Any web/interactive designer I have met (worth their salt) is using Adobe's tools. I have heard a few of these designers complain about the cost of the software, or performance on their older computer, but not about the tools. The design landscape for web or print would be absolutely barren without Adobe's tools.

Adobe Owns Designers

I do not see any development tools for HTML5 or Canvas that I, as a designer, would personally want to use. Actually, the only thing I seem to find is a lot of JavaScript snippets and code libraries. How can we build complex (or even simple) interactive, animated experiences that look good if we don't have some kind of timeline representation in the authoring tool? Am I supposed to use JavaScript to swap out sprites on a timer? Seriously? Sprites? Are we programming arcade games for the 1980s again? Canvas (and any JQuery-esque libraries) are great for core web site functionality, like form validation and image galleries, not for game or rich media development. How willl Canvas or JavaScript-based tools replace Flash on the content generation side without robust authoring tools? Won't Adobe be the first to offer these kinds of tools, in say Dreamweaver?

Does Apple Own Designers?

Here's the big question. Apple is by far the OS/platform of choice for designers. I know that Adobe has found an audience in creatives on a PC platform over the years, but by and large, most would want to work on a Mac over a PC. So assuming designers are essentially fans of both Apple and Adobe as a demographic, who will win their hearts? Apple certainly has clout, but how will Adobe's users take the news that one of their design tools, and possibly some of their own work, as being labeled resource hogs and something that could easily be replaced with a little JavaScript? I am a PC guy, so I don't have this internal conflict, but I am finding this question fascinating. As a Mac-based Flash designer, where is the love right now?

What is Adobe To Do?

Adobe has to keep doing what they are doing, but possibly manage their image in the press a bit more. If FlashPlayer 10.1 delivers the full experience on mobile, then I think Apple will feel serious pressure to allow Flash on their platform. If my Blackberry or an Android phone can deliver a better surfing experience than an iPhone, that will changes the landscape quickly. We see RIM and Google and Palm all embracing Flash as a competitive advantage, so if Adobe delivers, it really could bring the mobile web into parity with regular browsers.

What is a Shareholder to do?

I am buckling down and waiting for the results for FlashPlayer 10.1 and Creative Suite 5. Adobe currently owns their space, and should for the forseeable future. Their customers will find CS5 to be a compelling upgrade, based on what I have seen in sneak peaks already. I know that the CS5 upgrade will look REALLY good to those still using CS3 or earlier versions. So I may have to re-evaluate if the pre-CS5 launch hype drives the price up, but as of right now the plan is to hold for the long term.

I feel like I am on Mozilla's bad side after a series of posts about the conflict between Firefox/HTML 5 and Flash/Silverlight. In an effort to bring my open source karma into balance, I am going to talk a little bit about Firefox and some of its many benefits. None of this will be particularly shocking to Firefox fans, but hopefully will convert a few of those IE users who are still wondering what they are missing! After all, my goals are more about the best end user experience versus any organizations' agendas, and Firefox is definitely part of that experience. More...

Continued from Part 1

So there, I said it, any animation or heavily interactive work that I am going to do in the next few years will be done with Flash. Here's why:

Inertia is a Hard Thing to Overcome

I made a point earlier about IE6 still being commonly used, and corporate environments are notorious for being dragged into updates, mostly for security purposes. Legacy systems are hard to abandon, and that is as true for Flash as any technology. More...

I have been following the recent hullabaloo about HTML 5, how it is a "Flash-killer" and will eliminate the need for plugins. I figured that since I am a Flash user, and I also happen to code web sites in HTML and CSS, I have enough experience and hindsight to make a few salient points. The big question is of course if HTML 5 will render Flash, Silverlight, QuickTime, and all other browser plugins useless or impotent. My answer, for the next 3 to 5 years, is a resounding no. More...